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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Motivation</h2>
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<h3 class="hd hd-2">Motivation</h3>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Data Description</h2>
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<h3 class="hd hd-2">Data Description</h3>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Exercise: Data Description</h2>
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Exercise: Data Description
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<p>Suppose we have the following dataset for drug development paths and successful phase transitions:</p>
<center>
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<p>Assume we use success rates to estimate probabilities of success.</p>
<ol>
<li>What is the probability of transitioning from phase 1 to approval? (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answer should be a number is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.)
<p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 1" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline">
<div class="unanswered inline">
<input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" value=""/>
<span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1"/>
<span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered.">
<span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/>
</span>
<p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" class="answer"/>
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</div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p>
</li>
<li>Assuming we do not impute a phase 2 trial for Drug Development path 001, what is the probability of transitioning successfully out of: (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answers should be numbers is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.)
<ul><li>phase 1?
<p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 2" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline">
<div class="unanswered inline">
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<span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1"/>
<span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered.">
<span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/>
</span>
<p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" class="answer"/>
</div>
</div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p>
</li><li>phase 2?
<p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 3" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline">
<div class="unanswered inline">
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<span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1"/>
<span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered.">
<span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/>
</span>
<p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" class="answer"/>
</div>
</div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p>
</li><li>phase 3?
<p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 4" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline">
<div class="unanswered inline">
<input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" value=""/>
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<span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered.">
<span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/>
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<li>If we naively multiply the phase transition probabilities from the previous question together, then what is our estimate of the probability of transitioning from phase 1 to approval? (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answer should be a number is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.)
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