Global Warming Science

<div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-vertical" data-block-type="vertical" data-runtime-version="1" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020+type@vertical+block@97727daa546e4049abc15762d8a4c03e" data-graded="False" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020" data-has-score="False" data-init="VerticalStudentView" data-request-token="df60bcbedbdb11efb03c029b57e3cc89"> <h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Attribution</h2> <div class="vert-mod"> <div class="vert vert-0" data-id="block-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020+type@html+block@f57a8e8bdec44876a4db3e6d11dadb1b"> <div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-html xmodule_display xmodule_HtmlBlock" data-block-type="html" data-runtime-version="1" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020+type@html+block@f57a8e8bdec44876a4db3e6d11dadb1b" data-graded="False" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020" data-has-score="False" data-init="XBlockToXModuleShim" data-request-token="df60bcbedbdb11efb03c029b57e3cc89"> <script type="json/xblock-args" class="xblock-json-init-args"> {"xmodule-type": "HTMLModule"} </script> <h3>Credits</h3> <h4>Part III: The Global Climate System and Climate Modeling</h4> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="797" style="width: 598pt;"><colgroup><col width="797" style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 29147; width: 598pt;" /></colgroup> <tbody> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Schematic of climate forcings and feedbacks. IPCC AR4 report (2007) © IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Painting of Milutin Milankovic © Paja Jovanovic/Basil Vasca Milankovic.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Schematic of Milankovic cycles. © C. H. Beck. Source: Rahmstorf, S. and Schnellnhuber, H-J. (2007), Der Klimawandel: Diagnose, Prognose, Therapie.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Climate forcing and response. By Robert A. Rohde/Global Warming Art. License CC BY NC SA.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of ice volume and high latitude summer insolation over time. © AAAS. Source: Huybers, P.J. “Early pleistocene glacial cycles and the integrated summer insolation forcing." Science 313 5786 (2006) 508-511.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">400 years of sunspot observations. By Robert A. Rohde/Global Warming Art. License CC BY NC SA.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of solar cycle variations. By Robert A. Rohde/Global Warming Art. License CC BY NC SA.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl65" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of _14C vs time showing solar activity events. © Wikimedia User:Leland McInnes, CC BY-SA 3.0, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl65" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of _14C and sunspots vs time © Wikimedia User:Leland McInnes. License: CC BY-SA 3.0, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon14-sunspot.svg</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph showing observations of solar activity over time © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl65" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of temperature, CO2, and sunspots © Wikimedia User:Leland McInnes. License: CC BY-SA 3.0, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Temp-sunspot-co2.svg</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of atmospheric CO2 concentration vs. time. Image created by Robert A. Rohde/Global Warming Art. License CC BY NC SA.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of concentrations of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases vs. time © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of ozone radiative forcing vs. time © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graphs of CO2 and CH4 concentrations over time from paleo records. IPCC AR4 report (2007) © IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graphs of CO2 temperature over geologic time. IPCC AR4 report (2007) © IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of volcanic aerosol optical depth vs. time © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Graphs of global SO2 emissions vs. time © European Geosciences Union. Source: Smith, S. J. et al. “Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850-2005." Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11 (2011) 1101-1116.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of radiative forcing due to aerosols and black carbon vs. time © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Variation with time of climate forcings © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Contributions to net radiative forcing change of individual agents, 1750-2011 © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Uncertainties in aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of annual range of zonal monthly surface albedo estimates © American Meteorological Society. Source: Kukla, D. and Robinson, G. “Annual cycle of surface albedo." Mon. Wea. Rev. 108 (1980) 56-68.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Stability diagram for ice line latitude vs. radiative forcing © Wiley. Hoffman, P. F. and Schrag, D. P. “The snowball Earth hypothesis: Testing the limits of climate change." Terra Nova 14 (2002) 129-155.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Feedbacks in climate models © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Temperature change associated with Planck response and feedbacks in various GCMs © American Meteorological Society. Source: Dufresne, J-L. and Bony, S. “An assessment of the primary sources of spread of global warming estimates fromcoupled atmosphere-ocean models." J. Climate 21 (2008) 5135-5144.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Schematic of 3D ?nite-di?erence grid © Seismological Society of America. Kang, T-S. and Baag, C-E. \Ancient  nite-di erence method for simulating 3D seismic response of localized basin structures." Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94 5 (2004) 1690-1705.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Maps of changes in annual maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum number of consecutive dry days © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Maps of projected changes in near-surface relative humidity from CMIP5 © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Maps of CMIP5 multi-model median change in 20-year return values of annual warm temperature extremes © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Maps of temperature and precipitation change patterns from CMIP5 © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of surface temperature change under di?erent emissions scenarios © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of near-term projections of global mean temperature © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of sources of uncertainty in projected global mean temperature © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of radiative forcing of the representative concentration pathways © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Plots of potential temperature and salinity from the CMIP5 models and observations © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Annual mean cloud radiative e?ects from the CMIP5 models and observations (maps and graphs) © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Two global maps of annual mean precipitation rate © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Four global maps of annual-mean surface air temperature © IPCC From the IPCC AR5 report (2013),  https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Ensemble of climate models, Scenario A1B © InTech. Gebetsroither, E. et al. \Drought in alpine areas under changing climate conditions." Management Strategies to Adapt Alpine Space Forests to Climate Change Risks (2013) 165-189.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graphs of global mean temperature vs. time from simulations and observations. IPCC AR4 report (2007) © IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Simulated change in low clouds with doubling of CO2 in two models. © American Meteorological Society. Source: Stephens, G. L. \Cloud feedbacks in the climate system: A critical review." J. Climate 18 (2005) 237-273.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Cloud fraction as simulated by 25 atmospheric GCMs. © American Meteorological Society. Source: Weare, B.C. and Mokhov, I. I.\Evaluation of total cloudiness and its variability in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project." J. Climate 8 (1995) 2224-2238.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl65" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Photo of altostratus cloud. Wikimedia User:Earth100. License CC BY-SA. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Altostratus_clouds_over_Hong_Kong.JPG</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl65" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Photo of altocumulus cloud. Wikimedia User:LivingShadow. License CC BY-SA. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File: Partially_illuminated_Ac_with_shadows.JPG</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Photo of sea ice. © Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl65" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Photo of Earth Simulator. Wikimedia User:Was a bee. License CC BY-SA. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_simulator_ES2.jpg</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl65" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Graph of supercomputer performance vs time. Wikimedia User:AI.Graphic. License CC BY-SA. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Supercomputers.png</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">The development of climate models, past, present, and future © IPCC TAR report (2001), https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">500 hPa anomaly correlations in ECMWF model © European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Observed and forecast ?elds of geopotential height and vorticity © Blackwell Munksgaard. Source: Charney, J. G. et al. \Numerical integration of the barotropic vorticity equation." Tellus 2 (1950) 237-254.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Finite-di?erence grid over North America © Blackwell Munksgaard. Source: Charney, J. G. et al. \Numerical integration of the barotropic vorticity equation." Tellus 2 (1950) 237-254.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Photos of Jule Charney © Massachusetts Institute of Technology.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Portrait of Vilhelm Bjerknes © University of Leipzig.</td> </tr> <tr height="30" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 22.5pt;"> <td height="30" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 598pt;">Spherical Fibonacci grid © Royal Meteorological Society. Source: Swinbank, R. and Purser, R. J. \Fibonacci grids: A novel approach to global modelling." Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 132 (2006) 1769-1793.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Spherical geodesic grid © Colorado State University.</td> </tr> <tr height="20" style="mso-outline-level: 1; height: 15.0pt;"> <td height="20" class="xl67" width="797" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 598pt;">Conformal mapping of cube onto sphere © Peter Lauritzen/UCAR.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> </div>