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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Clouds, aerosols, and climate</h2>
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<h2>Clouds, aerosols, and climate</h2>
<p>Now that you have a grasp on the dynamics governing the general circulation of the Earth's atmosphere, in this section we will study one the most radiatively important features of that circulation: Clouds. This module will provide an overview of the climatic role of clouds in the atmosphere, including their interactions with particles suspended in the atmosphere. These particles, known as <b>aerosols</b>, contribute significant forcings and uncertainties to the Earth's radiative budget. This week's lectures will give an overview of the current state of scientific knowledge on the roles of clouds and aerosols in the climate system.</p>
<p><i>Instructor: Dan Cziczo</i></p>
<h2>Module outline</h2>
<p>In this module, we will describe the roles of clouds and aerosols in the Earth's climate system. Specifically, the module covers the following topics:</p>
<ul>
<li>The types of clouds that occur in the Earth's atmosphere, and an introduction to how they are formed</li>
<li>An introduction to aerosols</li>
<li>The <i>direct effect</i> of aerosols on climate</li>
<li>Theory, observation, and experiments for measurement of atmospheric aerosols</li>
<li>Categories of aerosols and their properties with respect to climate</li>
<li>The concept of <b>forcings and feedbacks</b> in the climate system</li>
<li>Aerosol-cloud interactions and the <i>indirect effects</i> of aerosols on climate</li>
<li>Other climate feedbacks, including those pertaining to clouds and water vapor</li>
</ul>
<h2>Background reading</h2>
<p>For and introduction to clouds in the Earth's atmosphere and their role in the present-day climate system, please read the short excerpt from the IPCC AR5 report presented on the next page.</p>
<h2>Supplemental reading</h2>
<p>This module will provide a broad overview of the roles of cloud and aerosol in the climate system. To learn more about clouds, aerosols, and climate change, see <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter07_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">Chapter 7</a> of the <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/" target="_blank">IPCC AR5 report</a>.</p>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Clouds in the present-day climate system</h2>
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<h2>Clouds in the present-day climate system</h2><p>Please read <b>Section 7.2.1</b> of the <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/" target="_blank">IPCC AR5 report</a>, reproduced below.</p><object data="/assets/courseware/v1/181f7657c158147fa0f823cba9d83e0e/asset-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020+type@asset+block/pdf_clouds_climatesys_ipcc.pdf" type="application/pdf" width="100%" height="1100">
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Identifying aerosols
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<p>Consider the following objects that may exist in the atmosphere:
<ol><li>salt particles formed from ocean spray</li><li>a raindrop</li><li>an ice crystal formed by condensation</li><li>a nitrogen molecule</li><li>dust blown off the Sahara desert</li><li>water vapor</li><li>an aeroplane</li></ol>
Which of the above may be considered to be an aerosol?
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Aerosol effects on climate</h2>
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How do aerosols alter the climate?
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<p>Aerosols can both absorb and reflect solar radiation incident on the atmosphere. What is the primary mechanism by which this affects the Earth's climate?</p>
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<text>Aerosols change the planetary albedo.</text>
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<text>Aerosols change the atmosphere's long-wave emissivity.</text>
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<text>Aerosols change the surface emissivity.</text>
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<text>Aerosols alter the solar constant.</text>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Measurement of aerosols</h2>
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Aerosol optical depth
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<p>Suppose a beam of light is pointed upward through the atmosphere in a region in which the aerosol optical depth is 1. Assuming no non-aerosol related scattering or absorption, by what fraction will the beam be attenuated when it leaves the top of the atmosphere? </p>
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<text>0.632</text>
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<text>0</text>
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<text>0.368</text>
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<text>there is not enough information to tell</text>
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Absorbing and scattering aerosols
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<p>If an aerosol is a good absorber, but a poor scatterer of radiation, what will its effect on climate be? </p>
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<text>depends on the size and type of aerosol</text>
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Forcings and feedbacks
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<p>Consider the scenario in which the emission of sulfate aerosols by humans results in an increased planetary albedo and a tendency for the planet to cool. The resultant cooling changes the behaviour of certain types of low clouds so that they become more widespread, reflecting more radiation, and increasing the magnitude of the cooling tendency. In this scenario, the forcing and feedback may be described:</p>
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<text>The aerosols provide a negative climate forcing, and the changes in clouds results in a negative feedback.</text>
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<text>The aerosols provide a negative climate forcing, and the clouds provide an additional negative forcing.</text>
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<text>The aerosols provide a positive climate forcing and the changes in clouds results in a positive feedback.</text>
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Indirect effects of aerosols
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<p>Which of the following is a correct description of the aerosol <b>1st indirect effect</b> on clouds? </p>
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<text>Increases in aerosol loading lead to a higher abundance of cloud condensation nuclei, increasing the number of drops in clouds. This <b>decreases</b> the cloud albedo, resulting in a negative cloud forcing.</text>
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<text>Increases in aerosol loading lead to a higher abundance of cloud condensation nuclei, increasing the number of drops in clouds. This <b>increases</b> the cloud albedo, resulting in a negative cloud forcing.</text>
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<text>Increases in aerosol loading lead to a higher abundance of cloud condensation nuclei, increasing the number of drops in clouds. These smaller drops take longer to precipitate, increasing the lifetime of clouds.</text>
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<text>Aerosols reflect solar radiation, resulting in an increase in the planetary albedo, a negative forcing on the climate system.</text>
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<h3 class="hd hd-3 problem-header" id="saturation-problem-title" aria-describedby="block-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020+type@problem+block@saturation-problem-progress" tabindex="-1">
Saturation Vapor Pressure
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<p>The dependence of the saturation vapor pressure [mathjaxinline]e_s[/mathjaxinline] on temperature is approximately exponential, and may be written
[mathjax]
e_s = e_0\exp(\beta(T-T_0)),
[/mathjax]
where [mathjaxinline]e_0[/mathjaxinline] and [mathjaxinline]T_0[/mathjaxinline] are reference values, and [mathjaxinline]\beta[/mathjaxinline] is roughly 0.07 K<sup>-1</sup>. What increment in temperature corresponds roughly to a doubling of the saturation vapor pressure?</p>
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<input type="radio" name="input_saturation_2_1" id="input_saturation_2_1_choice_raincooling" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_raincooling"/><label id="saturation_2_1-choice_raincooling-label" for="input_saturation_2_1_choice_raincooling" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_saturation_2_1">
<text>7 K</text>
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<input type="radio" name="input_saturation_2_1" id="input_saturation_2_1_choice_warmrising" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_warmrising"/><label id="saturation_2_1-choice_warmrising-label" for="input_saturation_2_1_choice_warmrising" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_saturation_2_1">
<text>10 K</text>
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<text>13 K</text>
</label>
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<input type="radio" name="input_saturation_2_1" id="input_saturation_2_1_choice_hotwater" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_hotwater"/><label id="saturation_2_1-choice_hotwater-label" for="input_saturation_2_1_choice_hotwater" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_saturation_2_1">
<text>20 K</text>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Problem Set: Clouds and aerosols</h2>
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<h2>Clouds & Aerosols</h2><p>This problem set is aimed at testing your understanding of the material presented in the videos of this sequence. By now you should have a basic understanding of the types of aerosols that form in the atmosphere their sources, and their potential effects on climate. You should also have an appreciation for the importance of clouds in the climate system, and their possible feedback mechanisms on the surface climate. This problem set contains three problems, each of which has multiple parts.</p><p>Problems may ask you to choose the correct answer between a list of alternatives, or may ask you to enter an answer in directly. Be sure to follow the instructions for each problem carefully to ensure you receive full credit for your responses.</p><p>In general you will be allowed two attempts at any multiple choice questions, and three attempts for symbolic or numerical responses, but this will be clearly indicated to you on each problem. Many problems have parts that are dependent on previous answers, and you are encouraged to check that these are correct before you proceed.</p>
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<h2>Problem 1: Absorbing and scattering aerosols</h2><p>In this problem, we will investigate the effects of absorbing and scattering aerosols on the climate system.</p>
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1a
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<p>A proposed geoengineering mechanism to reduce the effects of climate change is to pump sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere in order to reduce the amount of solar energy absorbed by the Earth system. Sulfate aerosols are good scatters of solar radiation, and thus increase the albedo of the atmosphere reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the planet.</p>
<p>Suppose we would like to use sulfate aerosols to reduce the effective emission temperature ([mathjaxinline]T_e[/mathjaxinline]) of the planet by 3.0 degrees Celsius. What <b>additional percentage</b> of the incoming solar radiation must sulfate aerosols reflect to achieve this? Assume that the solar constant is 1370 W/m<sup>2</sup> and the planetary albedo of the Earth before geoengineering commences is 0.30.</p>
<p>You may also use the percent symbol ('%') to express your answer.</p>
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1b
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<p>Sulfate aerosols are very efficient scatterers of radiation. Scattering efficiency is often measured by the scattering cross-section per unit mass, which for sulfate aerosols is 8130 m<sup>2</sup>/kg. We can think of this number as stating that 1 kg of sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, if it is well-mixed, is equivalent to placing a mirror in the atmosphere, 8130 m<sup>2</sup> in size and parallel to the surface, that completely reflects solar radiation. In reality the value of the scattering cross-section is wavelength dependent, but for this simple calculation we will assume all solar radiation is scattered equally, and all scattering is in the backward direction. </p>
<p>Based on the given properties of sulfate aerosols, calculate the global mass of sulfate, in kg, that must be placed in the atmosphere to increase the albedo by the amount found in the previous question (part a). Assume that all of the sulfate aerosals are evenly spread out across the surface of the Earth. </p>
<p>When entering numerical values, you may use the notation 5.67e-8 to refer to [mathjaxinline]5.67 \times 10^{-8}[/mathjaxinline] when scientific notation is needed. Traditional notation is also accepted. </p>
<p>Enter your answer below as a number of kg. <b>Do not include units in your answer.</b></p>
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1c
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<p>Aerosols in the stratosphere have a lifetime [mathjaxinline]\tau[/mathjaxinline] of approximately 2 years. As in problem 3a of the Instrumental record of Earth&#8217;s climate module, we assume a simple model for the time rate of change of the total mass [mathjaxinline]M[/mathjaxinline] of stratospheric aerosols,
[mathjax]
\frac{dM}{dt} = E - \frac{M}{\tau},
[/mathjax]
where E is the injection rate of aerosols [kg/year]. Based on this model and the answer to the previous question, at what rate would aerosols need to be injected into the stratosphere to keep the albedo of the Earth at the required level to offset 3 degrees Celsius of global warming in steady state?</p>
<p>Express your answer in kg/year. Note that the total injection rate of sulfate aerosols into the <it>troposphere</it> by human activity is around 80e9 kg/year.</p>
<p>Enter your answer below as a number of kg/year. <b>Do not include units in your answer.</b></p>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Problem 2: Cloud radiative forcing</h2>
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<h2>Problem 2: Cloud radiative forcing</h2><p>In this problem, we will use a simple black-body description of a cloud to investigate how clouds modify the global energy budget, and are a potential source of both positive and negative feedbacks in the climate system.</p>
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2a
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<p> The figure above shows a temperature profile using pressure as the vertical coordinate calculated using the <a href="/courses/course-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020/courseware/Resources/RCmodel/">Radiative-convective equilibrium model</a> available in the Resources section for the default parameters. Suppose there exist some clouds in this domain. We may divide the clouds into two types: <i>deep</i> and <i>shallow</i>. The deep clouds have tops near 300 hPa, while the shallow clouds have tops near 800 hPa. All clouds have their base at 900 hPa.</p>
<p> We may model the clouds as simple black bodies, radiating upwards at the cloud-top temperature, and downwards at the cloud-base temperature. Estimate the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere in W/m<sup>2</sup> in a region covered by deep clouds. You may assume there is no significant absorption or emission of radiation by the atmosphere above the tops of the deep clouds.</p>
<p>Enter your answer below as a number of W/m<sup>2</sup>. <b>Do not include units in your answer.</b></p>
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2b
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<p>The tops of the shallow clouds are relatively low in the atmosphere, and so the assumption that the top of atmosphere radiative flux is the same as that at the top of the cloud is not a good one. Instead, for the shallow clouds, we assume that they are low enough in the atmosphere that the top-of-atmosphere long-wave radiation is unaffected. Assuming that the effective emission temperature for a cloud-free atmosphere is 255 K, estimate the top-of-atmosphere upward long-wave radiative flux above cloud-free or shallow cloudy regions in units of W/m<sup>2</sup>.</p>
<p>Enter your answer below as a number of W/m<sup>2</sup>. <b>Do not include units in your answer.</b></p>
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2c
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<p>Shortwave radiation is also affected by clouds. Assume that in cloudy regions, the planetary albedo is increased to 0.600, while for cloud-free regions the planetary albedo is 0.200. Calculate the <b>net shortwave</b> radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere in a region covered by clouds (downward positive) in W/m<sup>2</sup>. You may also assume the solar luminosity is 1370 W/m<sup>2</sup>, and that the geometric factor is given by global-mean conditions, that is, assume the downward solar flux at the top of the atmosphere is given by [mathjaxinline]S_0/4[/mathjaxinline].</p>
<p>Enter your answer below as a number of W/m<sup>2</sup>. <b>Do not include units in your answer.</b></p>
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2d
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<div><span><p> Assuming the effective emission temperature in clear regions and regions with shallow clouds is 255 K, use your answers to the previous parts of this problem to calculate the net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux (net downward shortwave minus upward longwave) in clear regions, shallow cloudy regions, and deep cloudy regions. Write these values in W/m<sup>2</sup> in the boxes below, with the convention that a downward net flux (warming) is positive.</p></span><p>Enter your answers below as a number of W/m<sup>2</sup>. <b>Do not include units in your answers.</b></p>
Clear regions:
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2e
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Shallow Cloudy regions:
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2f
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Deep cloudy regions:
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2g
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<p>Based on the previous answer, do clouds warm or cool the climate system according to this simple model? Are shallow or deep clouds more effective in modifying the top-of-atmosphere energy balance of the Earth? Would a reduction of shallow clouds in a warmer climate be a positive or negative feedback on climate change?</p>
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<div class="wrapper-problem-response" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 1" role="group"><div class="choicegroup capa_inputtype" id="inputtype_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1">
<fieldset aria-describedby="status_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1">
<div class="field">
<input type="radio" name="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1" id="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_0" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_0"/><label id="4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1-choice_0-label" for="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_0" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1"> Clouds <b>cool</b> the climate, and <b>deep clouds</b> cool the climate more than shallow clouds. A reduction in shallow clouds in a warmer climate would <b>not be a strong feedback</b> in either direction because of the weak effect of shallow clouds on the radiation budget.
</label>
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<div class="field">
<input type="radio" name="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1" id="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_1" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_1"/><label id="4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1-choice_1-label" for="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_1" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1"> Clouds <b>warm</b> the climate, and <b>deep clouds</b> warm the most. Decreasing shallow clouds in a warmer climate would thus be a <b>negative</b> feedback on climate change.
</label>
</div>
<div class="field">
<input type="radio" name="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1" id="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_2" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_2"/><label id="4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1-choice_2-label" for="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_2" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1"> Clouds <b>cool</b> the climate, and <b>shallow clouds</b> cool the most. A reduction in shallow clouds would thus be a <b>positive</b> feedback on climate change.
</label>
</div>
<div class="field">
<input type="radio" name="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1" id="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_3" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_3"/><label id="4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1-choice_3-label" for="input_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1_choice_3" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_4ef2f8b7ff9b4fa0b9e315049a3658f4_2_1"> Clouds <b>cool</b> the climate, and <b>shallow clouds</b> cool the most. A reduction in shallow clouds would thus be a <b>negative</b> feedback on climate change.
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<p>Based on the solutions for parts D, E, and F, find a set of values for the fractional coverage of deep and shallow clouds that would allow global energy balance to be satisfied in this simple model. The solution to this question is not unique, but should assume there is no overlap between the regions covered in shallow and deep clouds.</p>
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Shallow cloud fraction = <div id="inputtype_b6f9cabf5187491dac5cd42a55c405ef_2_1" class=" capa_inputtype textline">
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Deep cloud fraction = <div id="inputtype_b6f9cabf5187491dac5cd42a55c405ef_2_2" class=" capa_inputtype textline">
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Problem 3: Cloud feedbacks</h2>
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<h2>Problem 3: Cloud feedbacks</h2><p>In this problem we again consider how clouds change the radiative budget of the Earth-system. We will use the <a href="/courses/course-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020/courseware/Resources/RCmodel/">radiative-convective model</a> in order to investigate how clouds may amplify or damp the response to the global climate to forcings.</p>
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<p>Run the <a href="/courses/course-v1:MITx+12.340x+1T2020/courseware/Resources/RCmodel/">radiative-convective model</a> <b>in its default configuration</b>, ensuring that the simulation has been done for long enough to reach equilibrium. Enter the equilibrium sea-surface temperature reached in units of degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>Enter your answer below as a number of degrees C. <b>Do not include units in your answer.</b></p>
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3b
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<p>Double the concentration of carbon dioxide and run the model again. What is the climate sensitivity of this model to CO<sub>2</sub>? That is to say, how much does the temperature change (in Kelvin or degrees Celsius) for a doubling of CO<sub>2</sub>?</p>
<p>Enter your answer below as a number of K. <b>Do not include units in your answer.</b></p>
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3c
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<p>The default model parameters are to not include clouds in the radiation calculation. You can include clouds by clicking the "show advanced parameters" checkbox, and then changing the cloud-radiation option to "interactive clouds". Repeat the calculation in part A with interactive clouds (remember to revert back to default CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations). Do clouds have a net cooling or net warming effect on the climate in this model?</p>
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<input type="radio" name="input_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1" id="input_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1_choice_0" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_0"/><label id="4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1-choice_0-label" for="input_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1_choice_0" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1"> Cooling because the equilibrium temperature for this simulation was <b>higher</b> than that of part A
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<input type="radio" name="input_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1" id="input_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1_choice_1" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_1"/><label id="4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1-choice_1-label" for="input_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1_choice_1" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_4952b1e543f6446480385816235b3058_2_1"> Warming because the equilibrium temperature for this simulation was <b>higher</b> than that of part A
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3d
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<p>By performing additional simulations, investigate the cloud feedback in this model. Is it positive or negative?</p>
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<input type="radio" name="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1" id="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_0" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_0"/><label id="a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1-choice_0-label" for="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_0" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1"> Positive, since the atmosphere warmed when clouds were included in the calculation.
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<input type="radio" name="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1" id="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_1" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_1"/><label id="a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1-choice_1-label" for="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_1" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1"> Negative, since the atmosphere cooled when clouds were included in the calculation.
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<input type="radio" name="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1" id="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_2" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_2"/><label id="a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1-choice_2-label" for="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_2" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1"> Positive, because the climate sensitivity is higher with cloud-radiative interactions turned on.
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<input type="radio" name="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1" id="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_3" class="field-input input-radio" value="choice_3"/><label id="a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1-choice_3-label" for="input_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1_choice_3" class="response-label field-label label-inline" aria-describedby="status_a968f8b1a3c44c0aaa3c7b9e300292ba_2_1"> Negative, because the climate sensitivity is lower when cloud-radiative interactions are turned on.
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