The Science and Business of Biotechnology

<div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-vertical" data-init="VerticalStudentView" data-runtime-version="1" data-graded="False" data-has-score="False" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@vertical+block@e488d3e327f94728b1ba59af774e36f0" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-request-token="873fd64451d411ecbe401652d7ed4529" data-block-type="vertical" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021"> <h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Motivation</h2> <div class="vert-mod"> <div class="vert vert-0" data-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d"> <div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-video xmodule_display xmodule_VideoBlock" data-init="XBlockToXModuleShim" data-runtime-version="1" data-graded="False" data-has-score="False" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-request-token="873fd64451d411ecbe401652d7ed4529" data-block-type="video" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021"> <script type="json/xblock-args" class="xblock-json-init-args"> {"xmodule-type": "Video"} </script> <h3 class="hd hd-2">Motivation</h3> <div id="video_ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d" class="video closed" data-metadata='{"generalSpeed": 1.0, "poster": "https://mitx-edx-video-meta-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/media/video-images/4db91f9294b749d480fc9f054dc723df.png?Expires=1638273680&Signature=p4FF3RckRs27z2r5jjwXueLFoFg%3D&x-amz-security-token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjECMaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJGMEQCIBPbnN7g2oqfH8f7uDRRpL1Tvt6mJeplQY1VYii6plHsAiBPrVUWiMiHM476WkAngBrmdYOTO1Fggk%2FE3JchrKU1AyqDBAjs%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F8BEAIaDDg1OTIwNTYzNzQxMSIM7zSeQrf5iSfU%2BBgHKtcDdUD4XBG3HmqcHfdBeFWsZYl4Nj8G1wcNZG4KYmIKTQbAl6HYgiCkz17zMDEuGf2QibmdoS2TebNxHTUiZTZ4I71tU%2B13qP8PimspaGsNB0BKY1TlGPPxMy%2FWbpXqv6YLPbdeVruvEFBj%2BWC9K52FbxXnP2VxNqMkMzurRn22PLTjzZ7S0kdKIkWykch%2B8yGPUDKy9AEsJiOSsVfbWWb4GI5yxqhtpPuIIC83MG2bZGQjwCz4GpFF3OIfA2Dpk8UAIpprI55goeDSZtIcmsC7ONhEJ%2FOVOHeBUga98obRq6iU4xgPDIxXPVyDCgh2E%2Bw8Aw77CHvYLkIeKjQNBt2G4Q83fvirFxW%2FVZKs82yiSCHzYExLZgzEFy6cRn8VUSsRziaXWbCz85y2NmCjaELj8aQ7CIe4gLXwFOzEH93WQH%2FHUXX0p3LVV%2Fi8fVKq8vG8Z2q4SEdJwNKOyU2%2FohpydBjUaBrzJ38F4%2FFncIEDlU%2BDhWsyFVvfsBtCz1I5ugezVKQWSmScE%2BADqdjCwKks15AFPsYJPvEEQQ0ZrQux4qsdbow%2Be0nkP5Gpt%2FZpooHcQvazaSavVuAs%2FefGb%2Fq6fi5Tr3%2Fk06Wb3R1deFL93GY4Lq3Cn1ZEMOmGmI0GOqYBQ9ZtvBgD64uB%2Fg%2BJtvUK1Is%2F4KlCWo8PhdqtAMbElSgYsb98cKVpE47R6%2B%2FR%2BYvuFQNoRzkZQy90DlHWM2CdYwkUtqCCoEkhu2C2lcKYlzBQitqhCugx6QuuOHg05G2y2XcxqV%2FYjVaThwIgBm0%2FT90sHTpInLw%2Fqgh84319SyHMt%2FPOkP0WYjPTeWpMMtN%2F6F0k%2BjP6jxu7U6oajaR6Zs7pr5MgpQ%3D%3D&AWSAccessKeyId=ASIA4QDFFSURVKFNDUJN", "lmsRootURL": "https://openlearninglibrary.mit.edu", "publishCompletionUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d/handler/publish_completion", "sources": ["https://d2f1egay8yehza.cloudfront.net/MITx15.482x-V010600_DTH.mp4", "https://d2f1egay8yehza.cloudfront.net/MITx15.482x-V010600/MITx15.482x-V010600.m3u8"], "completionPercentage": 0.95, "transcriptTranslationUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d/handler/transcript/translation/__lang__", "streams": "", "transcriptAvailableTranslationsUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d/handler/transcript/available_translations", "ytTestTimeout": 1500, "autohideHtml5": false, "saveStateUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d/handler/xmodule_handler/save_user_state", "speed": null, "autoAdvance": false, "saveStateEnabled": false, "start": 0.0, "ytApiUrl": "https://www.youtube.com/iframe_api", "duration": 91.41, "recordedYoutubeIsAvailable": true, "showCaptions": "true", "end": 0.0, "ytMetadataEndpoint": "", "prioritizeHls": false, "autoplay": false, "captionDataDir": null, "transcriptLanguage": "en", "transcriptLanguages": {"en": "English"}, "completionEnabled": false, "savedVideoPosition": 0.0}' data-bumper-metadata='null' data-autoadvance-enabled="False" data-poster='null' tabindex="-1" > <div class="focus_grabber first"></div> <div class="tc-wrapper"> <div class="video-wrapper"> <span tabindex="0" class="spinner" aria-hidden="false" aria-label="Loading video player"></span> <span tabindex="-1" class="btn-play fa fa-youtube-play fa-2x is-hidden" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Play video"></span> <div class="video-player-pre"></div> <div class="video-player"> <div id="ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d"></div> <h4 class="hd hd-4 video-error is-hidden">No playable video sources found.</h4> <h4 class="hd hd-4 video-hls-error is-hidden"> Your browser does not support this video format. 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<div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-vertical" data-init="VerticalStudentView" data-runtime-version="1" data-graded="False" data-has-score="False" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@vertical+block@2b48d40a9b364e71adc67eaab6fc6b19" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-request-token="873fd64451d411ecbe401652d7ed4529" data-block-type="vertical" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021"> <h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Data Description</h2> <div class="vert-mod"> <div class="vert vert-0" data-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2"> <div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-video xmodule_display xmodule_VideoBlock" data-init="XBlockToXModuleShim" data-runtime-version="1" data-graded="False" data-has-score="False" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-request-token="873fd64451d411ecbe401652d7ed4529" data-block-type="video" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021"> <script type="json/xblock-args" class="xblock-json-init-args"> {"xmodule-type": "Video"} </script> <h3 class="hd hd-2">Data Description</h3> <div id="video_aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2" class="video closed" data-metadata='{"generalSpeed": 1.0, "poster": "https://mitx-edx-video-meta-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/media/video-images/856fe96a84c740758508da586267015c.png?Expires=1638273680&Signature=Hs%2BbqH%2BNykJy4hezSdR%2Fe73vTto%3D&x-amz-security-token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjECMaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJGMEQCIBPbnN7g2oqfH8f7uDRRpL1Tvt6mJeplQY1VYii6plHsAiBPrVUWiMiHM476WkAngBrmdYOTO1Fggk%2FE3JchrKU1AyqDBAjs%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F8BEAIaDDg1OTIwNTYzNzQxMSIM7zSeQrf5iSfU%2BBgHKtcDdUD4XBG3HmqcHfdBeFWsZYl4Nj8G1wcNZG4KYmIKTQbAl6HYgiCkz17zMDEuGf2QibmdoS2TebNxHTUiZTZ4I71tU%2B13qP8PimspaGsNB0BKY1TlGPPxMy%2FWbpXqv6YLPbdeVruvEFBj%2BWC9K52FbxXnP2VxNqMkMzurRn22PLTjzZ7S0kdKIkWykch%2B8yGPUDKy9AEsJiOSsVfbWWb4GI5yxqhtpPuIIC83MG2bZGQjwCz4GpFF3OIfA2Dpk8UAIpprI55goeDSZtIcmsC7ONhEJ%2FOVOHeBUga98obRq6iU4xgPDIxXPVyDCgh2E%2Bw8Aw77CHvYLkIeKjQNBt2G4Q83fvirFxW%2FVZKs82yiSCHzYExLZgzEFy6cRn8VUSsRziaXWbCz85y2NmCjaELj8aQ7CIe4gLXwFOzEH93WQH%2FHUXX0p3LVV%2Fi8fVKq8vG8Z2q4SEdJwNKOyU2%2FohpydBjUaBrzJ38F4%2FFncIEDlU%2BDhWsyFVvfsBtCz1I5ugezVKQWSmScE%2BADqdjCwKks15AFPsYJPvEEQQ0ZrQux4qsdbow%2Be0nkP5Gpt%2FZpooHcQvazaSavVuAs%2FefGb%2Fq6fi5Tr3%2Fk06Wb3R1deFL93GY4Lq3Cn1ZEMOmGmI0GOqYBQ9ZtvBgD64uB%2Fg%2BJtvUK1Is%2F4KlCWo8PhdqtAMbElSgYsb98cKVpE47R6%2B%2FR%2BYvuFQNoRzkZQy90DlHWM2CdYwkUtqCCoEkhu2C2lcKYlzBQitqhCugx6QuuOHg05G2y2XcxqV%2FYjVaThwIgBm0%2FT90sHTpInLw%2Fqgh84319SyHMt%2FPOkP0WYjPTeWpMMtN%2F6F0k%2BjP6jxu7U6oajaR6Zs7pr5MgpQ%3D%3D&AWSAccessKeyId=ASIA4QDFFSURVKFNDUJN", "lmsRootURL": "https://openlearninglibrary.mit.edu", "publishCompletionUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2/handler/publish_completion", "sources": ["https://d2f1egay8yehza.cloudfront.net/MITx15.482x-V010700_DTH.mp4", "https://d2f1egay8yehza.cloudfront.net/MITx15.482x-V010700/MITx15.482x-V010700.m3u8"], "completionPercentage": 0.95, "transcriptTranslationUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2/handler/transcript/translation/__lang__", "streams": "", "transcriptAvailableTranslationsUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2/handler/transcript/available_translations", "ytTestTimeout": 1500, "autohideHtml5": false, "saveStateUrl": "/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2/handler/xmodule_handler/save_user_state", "speed": null, "autoAdvance": false, "saveStateEnabled": false, "start": 0.0, "ytApiUrl": "https://www.youtube.com/iframe_api", "duration": 202.13, "recordedYoutubeIsAvailable": true, "showCaptions": "true", "end": 0.0, "ytMetadataEndpoint": "", "prioritizeHls": false, "autoplay": false, "captionDataDir": null, "transcriptLanguage": "en", "transcriptLanguages": {"en": "English"}, "completionEnabled": false, "savedVideoPosition": 0.0}' data-bumper-metadata='null' data-autoadvance-enabled="False" data-poster='null' tabindex="-1" > <div class="focus_grabber first"></div> <div class="tc-wrapper"> <div class="video-wrapper"> <span tabindex="0" class="spinner" aria-hidden="false" aria-label="Loading video player"></span> <span tabindex="-1" class="btn-play fa fa-youtube-play fa-2x is-hidden" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Play video"></span> <div class="video-player-pre"></div> <div class="video-player"> <div id="aaeb90ec46324e99ae46a4c151c737e2"></div> <h4 class="hd hd-4 video-error is-hidden">No playable video sources found.</h4> <h4 class="hd hd-4 video-hls-error is-hidden"> Your browser does not support this video format. 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<div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-vertical" data-init="VerticalStudentView" data-runtime-version="1" data-graded="False" data-has-score="False" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@vertical+block@3cfc1537d93645b99140d4c35684054d" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-request-token="873fd64451d411ecbe401652d7ed4529" data-block-type="vertical" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021"> <h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Exercise: Data Description</h2> <div class="vert-mod"> <div class="vert vert-0" data-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f"> <div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-problem xmodule_display xmodule_ProblemBlock" data-init="XBlockToXModuleShim" data-runtime-version="1" data-graded="False" data-has-score="True" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-request-token="873fd64451d411ecbe401652d7ed4529" data-block-type="problem" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021"> <script type="json/xblock-args" class="xblock-json-init-args"> {"xmodule-type": "Problem"} </script> <div id="problem_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" class="problems-wrapper" role="group" aria-labelledby="74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-title" data-problem-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" data-url="/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f/handler/xmodule_handler" data-problem-score="0" data-problem-total-possible="5" data-attempts-used="0" data-content=" <h3 class="hd hd-3 problem-header" id="74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-title" aria-describedby="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-progress" tabindex="-1"> Exercise: Data Description </h3> <div class="problem-progress" id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-progress"></div> <div class="problem"> <div> <p>Suppose we have the following dataset for drug development paths and successful phase transitions:</p> <center> <div class="figure"> <img src="/assets/courseware/v1/5374982b96ba652a8fc7b0e2083e7721/asset-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@asset+block/clinical_success_rates_figure.png" width="80%"/> </div> </center> <p>Assume we use success rates to estimate probabilities of success.</p> <ol> <li>What is the probability of transitioning from phase 1 to approval? (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answer should be a number is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.) <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 1" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li> <li>Assuming we do not impute a phase 2 trial for Drug Development path 001, what is the probability of transitioning successfully out of: (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answers should be numbers is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.) <ul><li>phase 1? <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 2" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li><li>phase 2? <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 3" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li><li>phase 3? <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 4" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li></ul> </li> <li>If we naively multiply the phase transition probabilities from the previous question together, then what is our estimate of the probability of transitioning from phase 1 to approval? (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answer should be a number is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.) <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 5" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li> </ol> <div class="solution-span"> <span id="solution_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_solution_1"/> </div></div> <div class="action"> <input type="hidden" name="problem_id" value="Exercise: Data Description" /> <div class="submit-attempt-container"> <button type="button" class="submit btn-brand" data-submitting="Submitting" data-value="Submit" data-should-enable-submit-button="True" aria-describedby="submission_feedback_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" > <span class="submit-label">Submit</span> </button> <div class="submission-feedback" id="submission_feedback_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f"> <span class="sr">Some problems have options such as save, reset, hints, or show answer. 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