The Science and Business of Biotechnology

<div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-vertical" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@vertical+block@e488d3e327f94728b1ba59af774e36f0" data-graded="False" data-init="VerticalStudentView" data-has-score="False" data-block-type="vertical" data-runtime-version="1" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021" data-request-token="fca152f261e111f08f7012128dc316c1"> <h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Motivation</h2> <div class="vert-mod"> <div class="vert vert-0" data-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d"> <div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-video xmodule_display xmodule_VideoBlock" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@video+block@ee8cfbc362c241aa864f212142dbe69d" data-graded="False" data-init="XBlockToXModuleShim" data-has-score="False" data-block-type="video" data-runtime-version="1" 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<div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-vertical" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@vertical+block@3cfc1537d93645b99140d4c35684054d" data-graded="False" data-init="VerticalStudentView" data-has-score="False" data-block-type="vertical" data-runtime-version="1" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021" data-request-token="fca152f261e111f08f7012128dc316c1"> <h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Exercise: Data Description</h2> <div class="vert-mod"> <div class="vert vert-0" data-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f"> <div class="xblock xblock-public_view xblock-public_view-problem xmodule_display xmodule_ProblemBlock" data-runtime-class="LmsRuntime" data-usage-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" data-graded="False" data-init="XBlockToXModuleShim" data-has-score="True" data-block-type="problem" data-runtime-version="1" data-course-id="course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021" data-request-token="fca152f261e111f08f7012128dc316c1"> <script type="json/xblock-args" class="xblock-json-init-args"> {"xmodule-type": "Problem"} </script> <div id="problem_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" class="problems-wrapper" role="group" aria-labelledby="74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-title" data-problem-id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" data-url="/courses/course-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021/xblock/block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f/handler/xmodule_handler" data-problem-score="0" data-problem-total-possible="5" data-attempts-used="0" data-content=" <h3 class="hd hd-3 problem-header" id="74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-title" aria-describedby="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-progress" tabindex="-1"> Exercise: Data Description </h3> <div class="problem-progress" id="block-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@problem+block@74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f-problem-progress"></div> <div class="problem"> <div> <p>Suppose we have the following dataset for drug development paths and successful phase transitions:</p> <center> <div class="figure"> <img src="/assets/courseware/v1/5374982b96ba652a8fc7b0e2083e7721/asset-v1:MITx+15.480x+3T2021+type@asset+block/clinical_success_rates_figure.png" width="80%"/> </div> </center> <p>Assume we use success rates to estimate probabilities of success.</p> <ol> <li>What is the probability of transitioning from phase 1 to approval? (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answer should be a number is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.) <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 1" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_2_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li> <li>Assuming we do not impute a phase 2 trial for Drug Development path 001, what is the probability of transitioning successfully out of: (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answers should be numbers is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.) <ul><li>phase 1? <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 2" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_3_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li><li>phase 2? <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 3" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_4_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li><li>phase 3? <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 4" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_5_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li></ul> </li> <li>If we naively multiply the phase transition probabilities from the previous question together, then what is our estimate of the probability of transitioning from phase 1 to approval? (<i class="it">Note</i>: Your answer should be a number is percentage form. Do not enter '%'.) <p><div class="inline" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 5" role="group"><div id="inputtype_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" class=" capa_inputtype inline textline"> <div class="unanswered inline"> <input type="text" name="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" id="input_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" aria-describedby="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" value=""/> <span class="trailing_text" id="trailing_text_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1"/> <span class="status unanswered" id="status_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" data-tooltip="Not yet answered."> <span class="sr">unanswered</span><span class="status-icon" aria-hidden="true"/> </span> <p id="answer_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_6_1" class="answer"/> </div> </div></div><p style="display:inline">%</p></p> </li> </ol> <div class="solution-span"> <span id="solution_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f_solution_1"/> </div></div> <div class="action"> <input type="hidden" name="problem_id" value="Exercise: Data Description" /> <div class="submit-attempt-container"> <button type="button" class="submit btn-brand" data-submitting="Submitting" data-value="Submit" data-should-enable-submit-button="True" aria-describedby="submission_feedback_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f" > <span class="submit-label">Submit</span> </button> <div class="submission-feedback" id="submission_feedback_74b4966d901d43b0b5ccbe988c17082f"> <span class="sr">Some problems have options such as save, reset, hints, or show answer. 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