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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Choosing priors</h2>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Probability intervals</h2>
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<h2 class="hd hd-2 unit-title">Class 16 reading questions: estimating probability intervals</h2>
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<p>
In these problems we want you to estimate probability intervals for various quantities. This is best described by example. </p>
<p><b class="bf">Example.</b> Give your 50% probability interval for the median family income in Hungary. Do this by specifying the 25% lower bound and the 75% upper bound. Do not look anything up on the internet. Just make your best guess based on what you already know. There is no single correct answer. </p>
<p><b class="bf">Answer.</b> The question asks me to give a lower bound [mathjaxinline]L[/mathjaxinline] and an upper bound [mathjaxinline]U[/mathjaxinline] so that I think/feel/believe that there is a 25% chance the true value is less than [mathjaxinline]L[/mathjaxinline] and a 25% chance the correct vaue is greater than [mathjaxinline]U[/mathjaxinline]. This leaves a 50% probability the true value is between [mathjaxinline]L[/mathjaxinline] and [mathjaxinline]U[/mathjaxinline]. </p>
<p>
Well let's see. I seem to recall the median income in the U.S. is about $50,000. I'll guess that Hungary is quite a bit lower, maybe around $ 32000. I'm not all that confident it's not quite a bit lower than that. So my guess is that the 25% lower bound is $19,000 and the 75% bound is $40,000. </p>
<p>
Now it's your turn. Without looking anything up online give your 25% lower bound and 75% upper bound for each of the following quantities. </p>
<p>
Answers we found from the internet will be in the slides for this class. </p>
<p><b class="bf">1.</b> The total number of airline deaths in the last 100 years. </p>
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<p><b class="bf">2.</b> The number of girls born in the world each year. </p>
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<p><b class="bf">4.</b> The number of French speakers world-wide. </p>
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Problem 4
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<p><b class="bf">5.</b> The number of abortions performed in the U.S. each year. </p>
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25% lower bound. <div class="wrapper-problem-response" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 1" role="group"><div id="inputtype_c16-rq14_2_1" class=" capa_inputtype textline">
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75% upper bound. <div class="wrapper-problem-response" tabindex="-1" aria-label="Question 2" role="group"><div id="inputtype_c16-rq14_3_1" class=" capa_inputtype textline">
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